We're On the Other Side of the Valley

By: Tony Genua, Jonathan Lo • January 17, 2024

At the beginning of 2023, we published a note titled “History Suggests a Positive Year in 2023”. In it, we argued that two consecutive calendar years of negative returns has been very rare in history, and limited to calamitous situations such as World War II, the oil embargo of 1973-74, and the technology bubble of 2000. Moreover, equity markets are forward-looking, and had already priced in a significant amount of weakness in the bear market of 2022. As such we concluded that 2023 was likely to be a positive and rewarding year for stock market investors after a tough 2022.

 

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