The Macro Tailwinds for Real Assets

The Macro Tailwinds for Real Assets

Favourable structural trends include deglobalization, geopolitical uncertainty and strategic competition. 

For investors, real assets—tangible things like natural resources, commodities and real estate—tend to be useful in a portfolio as volatility-dampers and inflation hedges, while delivering the potential for capital appreciation and income generation. Through a tumultuous 2025, they have provided steady positive returns after the shock of the U.S. “Liberation Day” tariffs in April. Yet now, looking ahead to 2026, the macroeconomic view suggests slowing but positive global growth, with no obvious signs of a severe recession in any major market. That landscape remains broadly supportive of growth equities, even if their market valuations are generous and momentum continues to ease. Slow but positive economic growth and supportive monetary and fiscal policy globally should temper equity volatility.

So, can a case be made for investors to further explore real assets next year? We think so, and the reasons have to do with several longer-term structural trends that will continue to play out. Even in a more stable macro environment, deglobalization, geopolitical uncertainty and strategic competition—and, as a result of those trends, inflation that may well remain stubbornly above central bank targets— could provide tailwinds for real assets in 2026.

Despite a détente in U.S.-China trade relations and the ongoing resumption of global supply chains in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, deglobalization is expected to continue, resulting in further reorientation of trade flows and logistic evolutions. We expect local/regional inventories to increase and a continuing trend to localized production in many industries.

This trend is in part a response to the supply chain risks exposed during the pandemic, but it is also related to heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Significant damage has already been done to cross-border confidence—not just between the U.S. and China, but also between the U.S. and its traditional allies in North America and Europe—and it has sparked a rising trend toward strategic and regional competition, which shows few signs of abating. The likely result in 2026: further fragmentation of existing global supply chains, rising global aggregate inventories of goods, and longer and more complex logistical channels.

This is sand in the gears of the global flow of goods, and we expect the ongoing focus on politico-economic competition and deglobalization to be broadly inflationary across all asset classes—but most notably in physical assets. Commodities broadly and extractive minerals in particular stand to be affected. For major economies, supply security of minerals is now a top priority, and that is driving strategic competition. The likely result will be more tariff boundaries to trade, rising prices for existing inventory and higher valuations for future resources.

We have already seen this dynamic at play in the extraordinary price moves for gold, which broke through most traditional valuation metrics in 2025. Even without tariffs or physical limitations, the combination of rising global deficit spending, steady and low real rates, persistent inflation and geopolitical instability may be supportive of gold prices and broader price participation across the precious metal group for the medium term .

We have also seen the market impact of strategic competition in a variety of industries, the most prominent of which is artificial intelligence (AI). The initial reaction of investors has been to focus on valuations for AI chips, hardware manufacture and AI “hyper-scalers,” as well as selective feeders of the emerging industry (for example, data centres and power generators). Going forward, however, at this intersection of economic and national security, we can expect equity markets to broaden their focus, creating yet-unrealized investment opportunities in other factors of the supply chain and adjacent industries, including real assets.

While continuing to generate positive cash flows and returns for the equity market this year (the Morningstar Real Asset PR Index was up more than 9% through mid-November), the performance of the real asset universe trailed the broader indices. We expect equity market volatility to subside in 2026, which may benefit real assets generally by broadening and recalibrating valuations beyond growth stocks. But we also see tailwinds for real assets in a geopolitical and global economic context that could be persistently inflationary. In that environment, real assets’ traditional potential as an inflation hedge would be one aspect of their appeal; another would be the likelihood that real asset prices are drivers (and beneficiaries) of inflation.

Not all real assets stand to benefit, of course. Among them, oil, certain commodity chemicals and the packaging/container industries may be net losers from the deglobalization trend, while utilities (partly because of AI-related power demand) should hold steady. On the other hand, industrials, defence infrastructure (a beneficiary of strategic competition), metals and mining, and construction materials seem poised to be net winners, and the outlook remains positive for gold and other precious metals. As always, investors should consider focusing on quality, low costs and sustainable cash flow generation in their real asset exposures. If they do, 2026 could turn out to be a very good year, indeed.

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