AGF Insights | Outlook 2024

How High for How Long?

A Message From AGF's CEO and Chief Investment Officer
How High for How Long?
Kevin McCreadie says the potential end to
interest rate hikes could bolster markets
further in 2024, but also believes investors
should temper their expectations about
future rate cuts.

Read More

A Message From AGF's CEO and CIO
How High for How Long?
Kevin McCreadie says the potential end to
interest rate hikes could bolster markets
further in 2024, but also believes investors
should temper their expectations about
future rate cuts.

Read More

DECEMBER 5, 2023 | By:
Looking Further Afield for Opportunities

U.S. equity opportunities may lie outside the narrow group of stocks related to artificial intelligence, while equities in Europe, China and Japan could offer additional prospects for returns in the year ahead.

Global equity markets posted positive returns in 2023 despite meaningful uncertainty stemming from bank failures, geopolitical events and a slowing economic environment that faced decade-high inflation and rising interest rates. U.S. equities experienced one of the narrowest markets in decades, sparked by a sharp rally in artificial intelligence (AI) and large-language model related stocks early in the year. Consequently, large-capitalization stocks outperformed small-cap stocks, supported by the frenzy over AI and by investor preference for the perceived safety of the big names in an uncertain environment.

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DECEMBER 5, 2023 | By:
Will the Hurting Stop in 2024?

The prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve being on hold could be a positive for many markets, particularly in those countries where central banks were early to tighten.

2024 may be the year that central banks generally stop being a headwind for government bond performance, but the question of whether they can morph into a tailwind is largely a regional and country-specific one.

Global growth in 2024 should continue to be impacted negatively by the lagged effects of all the tightening done so far. These after-effects are being felt across the world to varying degrees.

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DECEMBER 5, 2023 | By:
Time to Re-Focus

Carry strategies in foreign exchange markets may be at risk, and a more diversified approach to currency management may be key.

In photography, there is a concept called bokeh. Essentially, it is having your subject in focus but the background in a dreamlike blur. This popular effect draws the viewer’s attention to the subject and eliminates distraction. The more smoothly blurred the background, the better the bokeh.

Currency markets often exhibit this state of heightened focus. While investors are aware of risks, they tend to lie outside of the focal plane – they’re blurry, in other words – until one day they take over as the subject or, in some cases, subjects. And then they become clear.

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DECEMBER 5, 2023 | By:
Investing in a Real World

Real Assets may be well-positioned to play an important role in portfolios over the next cycle.

The inflation and interest rate moves over the past year have induced substantial volatility in global equity markets, forcing the reset of many valuation parameters and influencing market performance and breadth. While interest rates may contract from existing levels, we believe the very low rate environment of the past decade is unlikely to come back anytime soon. Inflation might well be harder to tame than implied by the broader market or by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)’s goals, and inflation protection may be a potential consideration in portfolio construction over the medium term.

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DECEMBER 5, 2023 | By:
A Turn for the Private Good

The potential end to the rate-hiking cycle could be a positive catalyst for some private market investments in 2024.

The past 18 months have been challenging for most sectors in the private markets after more than a decade of positive performance, according to Preqin data. Like most asset classes, private alternatives are not immune to a macro climate of persistently high inflation and rising interest rates. This environment has a knock-on effect that slows asset realizations, which reduce distributions and subsequently reduces net new fundraising. Coupled with negative impacts on performance of this environment and predictions of a slower economy, this has led to a slower pace of growth than was the average in the back half of the last decade. For the first time in a long time private assets are facing an uphill climb as we look to 2024.

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Racing Uncertainty

The Slow Divorce in Emerging Markets

Growing Pains

Who’s Going to Fund the U.S. Deficit?

Cutting Through the Noise

What if There’s a Recession (And Central Banks Start Cutting Rates)?

Contributors

The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF Investments.

Commentary and data sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other news sources unless otherwise noted. The commentaries contained herein are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of December 5, 2023 and are not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication, however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF Investments accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use or reliance on the information contained here.

This document may contain forward-looking information that reflects our current expectations or forecasts of future events. Forward-looking information is inherently subject to, among other things, risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed herein.

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