From One Crisis to Another, A New Normal Emerging

By: Tony Genua, Jonathan Lo • March 21, 2022

As COVID Fades, Russia Invades, and the Economy Cascades

“Change is the only constant in life.” – Heraclitus

The Greek philosopher Heraclitus was known for his doctrine of change being central to the universe. His central claim is summed up in the phrase Panta Rhei (“life is flux”), recognizing that the underlying essence of life is change. All things, he claimed, are brought into and pass out of existence through a clash of opposites which continually create and destroy.

We are reminded of this doctrine when considering the global events of the past several years, with the world having gone through a once-in-a-lifetime global pandemic and now a tragic war in Ukraine that represents anupheaval in the geopolitical world order. Change has been constant over the past several years – and the new reality that the world faces is one that is dramatically different from just three years ago. However, with a new normal comes new opportunities, and with new crises comes new market leadership.In our recently published notes, we discussed the onset of a new bull market and the prospect for a long runway for upside despite the significant market appreciation off the March 2020 bottoms so far. We thought it would be useful to update our readers on what has transpired over the past three months where we have seen a shift in expectations for the economy and for corporate earnings.

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Publication date: March 22, 2022